Decisions, not results
Judging a play by its reasoning.
- 01, open this step in the interactive versionYour cardsA♠ A♥Their cardsK♣ K♦
You have A♠ A♥. They have K♣ K♦. All the money goes in before the flop: $100 each.
- 02, open this step in the interactive version
How often do the aces win from here?
show answer
answerAbout 81%
whyThe kings need one of the two kings left in the deck, or a rare straight or flush. Counted over every possible board, the aces win about 81% of the time.
- 03, open this step in the interactive versionBoard9♠ 4♦ K♥ 2♣ 7♠Best fiveK♣ K♦ K♥ 9♠ 7♠
The board runs 9♠ 4♦ K♥ 2♣ 7♠. They hit a king and win the pot.
- 04, open this step in the interactive version
Was getting all-in a mistake?
show answer
answerNo
whyYou put your money in as an 81% favourite. Every time you do that, you make about $63 on average. This time you lost; the decision was still right.
- 05, open this step in the interactive versionEVall-in +63 · fold 0
Judging a decision by how it turned out is called resulting. It is one of the most common mistakes in poker, and outside it.
- 06, open this step in the interactive version
A good decision is the one with the highest expected value. A good result is partly luck. Over enough hands, the two line up.
- 07, open this step in the interactive versionYour cardsQ♠ J♠BoardA♣ K♦ 4♥ 10♥ 2♣
You fold Q♠ J♠ on the flop to a big bet. The turn would have given you a straight. Was folding wrong?
show answer
answerNot necessarily
whyAsk whether folding was right with what you knew at the time: the price, your outs, their likely hands. Not with a card you saw later.
- 08, open this step in the interactive versionEVall-in +63 · fold 0
Review decisions, not results. Write down the spot, the price and your read, and check the math later.