for nerds / bluffing & mdf
06 / 12

Bluffing & MDF

8 steps · read as text
money
pot $100bet $100
your range
defend 50%fold 50%
their bets
value 67%bluffs 33%
your call
calling and folding both earn $0
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They bet $100 into a $100 pot. If it’s a bluff, it has to work half the time to break even.

the two rules

defend at least = pot ÷ (pot + bet)

bluff share = bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet)

The bluff share is the same number as the caller’s pot odds.

common sizes
betdefendbluffs⅓ pot75%20%½ pot67%25%⅔ pot60%29%pot50%33%2× pot33%40%
next
05Bet sizing07Nash equilibrium→Practice: pot odds
sources & further reading
The Mathematics of PokerBill Chen, Jerrod Ankenman · 2006 · book
Applications of No-Limit Hold’emMatthew Janda · 2013 · book
Theory of Games and Economic BehaviorJohn von Neumann, Oskar Morgenstern · 1944 · book