payouts
chips
you finish
1st 50%2nd 33.3%3rd 16.7%
money
to call
chips: 50%
ICM: 52.9%
0%100%
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Three players are left in a tournament. The prize pool pays 50% to first, 30% to second and 20% to third.
Three players are left in a tournament. The prize pool pays 50% to first, 30% to second and 20% to third.
P(you finish 1st) = your chips ÷ all chips
P(2nd) = Σ P(they win) × your chips ÷ chips left
Then value = Σ P(place) × prize. It ignores skill and position, and still captures most of what matters.
Near the money and at final tables, call all-ins tighter than chip math says, and shove a little more when others must call you tightly.